|| Global Warming || Table of Contents ||
Based on the analysis of entrapped air from ice cores extracted from permanent glaciers from various regions around the globe, it has been demonstrated that global warming began 18,000 years ago, accompanied by a steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Humans are quite likely the cause of a large portion of the 80 ppm rise in CO2 since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, and from a distance, it looks possible that increasing CO2 may cause atmospheric temperatures rise. However, on closer examination it is seen that CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the primary driver of the temperature changes.
The real signature of greenhouse warming is not surface temperature but temperature in the middle of the troposphere, about 5 kilometers up. If global warming is occurring from an increasing greenhouse effect due to CO2 additions by humans the temperature of the middle troposphere should be warming faster than Earth's surface (1,2). However, the opposite has been happening-- which suggests either the surface temperature records are in error or natural factors, such as changes in solar activity, may be responsible for the slight rise in surface temperatures (approximately 0.6° C, globally) that appears to have occurred over the past century.
Interestingly, from 1999 to the present the temperature of the mid troposphere has actually decreased slightly and surface temperatures have ceased warming -- even as CO2 concentrations have continued to increase (3). This should not be happening if CO2 increases to the atmosphere are the primary driver of global warming.
Carbon Dioxide -vs- Temperature Graphs:
|Last 800,000 years (requires |
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Last 400,000 years
Last 50,000 years
Last 2,000 years
Last 500 years
Last 200 years
Last 100 years
Last 50 years
(1) Climate Change Science; Compiled by Ken Gregory, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, November 11, 2007.
(2) Climate experts debate in NYC, March 2007-- specifically, testimony by Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
(3) Tropospheric and Stratospheric Temperature Record from Satellite Measurments, The National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Satellite Information Service, April 27, 2003 update.
Carbon Dioxide Graphs:
Soviet Station Vostok, Antarctic
1) Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO2 Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations
Hubertus Fischer, Martin Wahlen, Jesse Smith, Derek Mastroianni, and Bruce Deck
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Published: by the American Association for the Advancement of Science
Science, 283, 1712-1714
Get the data at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/vostokco2.html
2) Barnola, et. al.
Nature, 329, 408-414 (1987)
Get the data at: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/co2.txt
Taylor Dome, Antarctica
3) Holocene Carbon-cycle Dynamics
Based on CO2 Trapped in Ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica
A. Indermühle*, T. F. Stocker*, F. Joos*, H. Fischer², H. J. Smith², M. Wahlen², B. Deck², D. Mastroianni², J. Tschumi*, T. Blunier*, R. Meyer* & B. Stauffer
Published: 1999, Macmillan Magazines Ltd
Nature, Vol. 398, 11 March 1999
Get the data at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/taylor/taylor_data.html
C. Lorius, J. Jouzel, C. Ritz, L. Merlivat, N. I. Barkov, Y. S. Korotkevitch
and V. M. Kotlyakov, A 150,000-year climatic record from Antarctic ice, Nature,
316, 1985, 591-596.
J. Jouzel, C. Lorius, J. R. Petit, C. Genthon, N. I. Barkov, V. M. Kotlyakov
and V. M. Petrov, Vostok ice core: a continuous isotope temperature record over
the last climatic cycle (160,000 years), Nature, 329, 1987, 402-408.
J. R. Petit, L. Mounier, J. Jouzel, Y. Korotkevitch, V. Kotlyakov and C.
Lorius, Paleoclimatological implications of the Vostok core dust record,
Nature, 343, 1990, 56-58.
C. Ritz. Un modele thermo-mecanique d'evolution pour le bassin glaciaire
Antarctique Vostok-Glacier Byrd: sensibilite aux valeurs des parametres mal
connus (Univ. de Grenoble, 1992).
T. Sowers, M. Bender, L. D. Labeyrie, J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, D. Martinson and
Y. S. Korotkevich, 135 000 year Vostok - SPECMAP common temporal framework.,
Paleoceanogr., 8, 1993, p. 737-766.
J. Jouzel, N. I. Barkov, J. M. Barnola, M. Bender, J. Chappelaz, C. Genthon, V.
M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, J. R. Petit, D. Raynaud, G. Raisbeck, C.
Ritz, T. Sowers, M. Stievenard, F. Yiou and P. Yiou, Extending the Vostok
ice-core record of paleoclimate to the penultimate glacial period, Nature, 364,
C. Waelbroeck, J. Jouzel, L. Labeyrie, C. Lorius, M. Labracherie, M. Stievenard
and N. I. Barkov, Comparing the Vostok ice deuterium record and series from
Southern Ocean core MD 88-770 over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles,
Clim. Dyn., 12, 1995, 113 - 123.
J. Jouzel, C. Waelbroeck, B. Malaiz, M. Bender, J. R. Petit, N. I. Barkov, J.
M. Barnola, T. King, V. M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, D. Raynaud, C.
Ritz and T. Sowers, Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice
Get the data at: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok_deld.txt